FOMC members began their meeting with what was in many respects a bright economic picture: 2.8% growth in gross domestic product, resilient consumer spending, strong business investment, job growth above its pre-pandemic pace, and the stock market booming. While inflation remained more than half a point above the Fed’s 2% target, it was nevertheless much lower than a year ago. Many serious analysts had still urged the Fed to consider a July federal-funds rate cut, but that seemed like a close judgment call. The Fed’s decision wasn’t unreasonable based on the data at the time.