Explore our prediction model for Britain’s looming election

To tackle this problem, The Economist has built a new prediction model using 9,398 individual constituency-level election results along with available polling data from every election since 1959. Our model builds on the simple principle of uniform national swing—the idea that support for parties rises and falls across all constituencies in the country by the same magnitude—and augments it with specific regional polling from Scotland, Wales, London and so on. The output is not so much a forecast as a “nowcast”—a prediction of what would happen if the election were held tomorrow. If you happen to be Rishi Sunak, you should look away now.