Ursula von der Leyen is the favourite to keep leading the EU—right?

The 65-year-old German is hardly the first commission president to address a largely empty parliament (MEPs are often said to be busy with some other vital business). She is, however, the first to run for a second term since a new constitution-like treaty changed the way the EU was run in 2009. An attempt to make the top brass in Brussels seem more accountable to the public, by linking their appointment to the results of European Parliament elections, was well-intentioned, but has the capacity to kick up unpredictable results. As the incumbent, and only credible, candidate, Mrs von der Leyen remains odds-on to stick around after the elections on June 6th-9th. But her path to reappointment is more difficult than it once looked. At worst, a mishap could leave the EU ditching a competent and experienced leader at a time of war, economic torpor and potential Trumpism.