Why the global cocoa market is melting down

The chocolatier may have to eat his words. This season, for the third year in a row, cocoa supply is expected to fall short of demand—by 8.5% of global production. Next year another deficit looms. The result is a chaotic market. In the month to April 19th the price of the most popular cocoa contract rose by 50%, to nearly $12,000 a tonne, a record. Ten days later rain in drought-hit western Africa, home to four-fifths of the global crop, sparked the biggest-ever intraday price fall. Prices are still triple their level of a year ago (see chart).