Diego Maradona offers central bankers enduring lessons

For much of the intervening period, the Maradona theory has reigned supreme. After the global financial crisis of 2007-09, and again during the covid-19 pandemic, central banks’ policy rates spent long spells close to zero, as officials sought to stimulate their economies. Unable to force short-term interest rates much lower, many plumped for a Maradona-esque solution: assuring investors that they had no intention of raising policy rates any time soon. Quantitative easing (QE) programmes, which bought large volumes of bonds with newly created reserves, reinforced this signal by ensuring central banks (or the governments indemnifying them) would take heavy losses if they raised rates. The ball hit the net, and long-term yields dropped to historic lows.