The military dictatorship controls less than 50% of Myanmar

Myanmar’s borderlands appear to be particularly vulnerable. Local ethnic armed groups have seized territory in Shan state next to China, and Chin state next to India and Bangladesh (see map). In western Rakhine state, the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed group, says it has captured at least nine out of 17 townships, home to around 1m people, making it the country’s largest area not controlled by the government. The National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow administration that claims to lead the resistance, says that “revolutionary forces” and the NUG now have control of over 60% of the country. But although the junta’s control is weaker in Myanmar’s ethnic border states, it still holds sway over many key areas, including the big cities.