The people and places that turned away from the BJP

It is not that the BJP’s popularity has fallen across the board. Its overall share of the national vote declined only fractionally, from 37.3% to 36.5% (see chart 1). In the south, in the past a weak spot for the BJP where it was hoping to make headway this time, its vote share did in fact rise markedly. But in its heartland, the Hindi-speaking states of the north, its vote share fell. And whereas its increased support in the south was not enough to win it any extra seats there, its decline in the north cost it dearly (see chart 2). In effect, the BJP’s vote was unchanged, but much less efficiently distributed. In 2019 its 37% share of the vote won it 56% of the seats; this time a similar showing yielded only 44% of seats.