The SNP feels the heat in Scotland’s election campaign

Mr Cowan blames the baleful influence of social media. But another trend also explains the abuse: the precipitous decline of the SNP’s standing among the electorate. It now trails the Labour Party by 31 percentage points to 40, according to The Economist’s poll tracker, down from a thumping lead of 47 points to 14 in January 2020. Like the Tories, it has worked through three leaders since then. Nicola Sturgeon resigned in 2023 amid a party-finance scandal; her successor, Humza Yousaf, stepped down in May to be replaced by John Swinney. Our prediction model offers a central scenario of the snp taking 24 seats in Scotland, half the number it took in 2019.