A global recession is not in prospect

But a look at the latest data suggests that the global economy is not in danger, and that the market panic may be misplaced. Turn first to the labour market. America’s unemployment rate has risen from a low of 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.3% in July. Indeed, history suggests that an increase of this size tends to accompany a drop in economic output—leading, in turn, to a further rise in unemployment, bankruptcies and falling incomes.