What next after Ukraine’s shock invasion of Russia?

The short-term gains are straightforward. Vladimir Putin has been palpably embarrassed: on August 12th he was shown on Russian state television castigating military, security and local government officials. Ukrainian forces have taken control of the story after many months of being on the back foot, notes Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst with Rochan Consulting, a firm that tracks the war. Ukraine has maintained tight security and has been able to surprise the enemy, much as General Syrsky’s offensive did against Russian forces in Kharkiv nearly two years ago. Ukraine believes it has shown that far from being frozen the conflict’s frontline is fluid, potentially changing the calculus of Russia and the West in any future negotiations.