The illustration shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris with a red bar graph diagonally cutting across them. The colour scheme is predominantly red and blue, highlighting the political context.
2024-08-15 654词 中等
It was not so long ago that some Democrats were deluding themselves that, even with a mumbling 81-year-old Joe Biden as their candidate, the election was in essence a coin flip. In mid-June, when The Economist launched its election model, its findings should have been a wake-up call. The forecast—which takes into account information from opinion polls and “fundamental” factors such as the state of the economy, presidential approval ratings and the share of swing voters—was that Mr Biden’s chance of winning was in fact well below 50:50. By the time Mr Biden dropped out of the race on July 21st, a few weeks after a calamitous debate with Mr Trump, the model showed that his likelihood of victory had plunged still further.
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