Our new forecast for America’s presidential election

Our model believes she would be the narrow favourite if the election were held today, with a 61% chance of winning. But history cautions against relying too heavily on polls at this stage. So far there are only three weeks’ worth of polls with Ms Harris and Mr Trump as candidates. During that time, Ms Harris’s numbers have improved markedly. But what has recently gone up could very well come back down. Our forecast therefore combines polling with “fundamentals”—based on more stable, long-term trends.