Even as it humiliates Russia, Ukraine’s line is crumbling in the Donbas

The fog of war and cloak of Ukrainian operational secrecy mean details are still scarce. But satellite images showing Russian fortifications offer the most obvious confirmation of stabilisation. In the initial phase, Russian engineering teams protected against worst-case scenarios, digging in around high-value targets like the nuclear-power station near Kurchatov and along the main road leading north to the regional capital, Kursk. Now they are building extended fortifications to the east and west, much closer to the new front lines—and at the closest point, only 16km from assumed Ukrainian positions, according to Brady Africk, an American analyst who tracks these defences. The pace of the construction mirrors that seen in southern Ukraine in early 2023. The appearance of the so-called “Surovikin line”, named after Russia’s commanding general at the time, played a key part in stopping Ukraine’s counteroffensive later that year.