Political allies of Rounds have begun preparing for this scenario, even though they remain skeptical that Noem will actually make the move, three people familiar with the discussions told me. To get into the race, Noem would have to register for the primary and collect the 2,171 supportive signatures statewide by the end of next month. A Noem adviser told me today that she has no plans to leave. But Noem could have an incentive to seek elective office if Democrats remain on track to win back control of the House and launch investigations into her tenure at the Department of Homeland Security. A Senate seat would give her both a professional staff and a fundraising platform to help defend herself.