Now that the strait has been closed, hundreds of tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil are sitting idly at the entrance, afraid to proceed further; oil supplies around the world are dwindling, and, with nowhere to send their product, major exporters are shutting down their oil fields. And yet oil markets have so far been relatively sanguine about the situation. In recent days, oil prices have spiked by only about 20 percent. That seems to be due to a widespread belief among traders that the United States wouldn’t possibly allow such a catastrophic disruption to persist. That’s not an unreasonable bet—but it is very much a bet, and one that might not pay off. If anything, global oil markets might not be taking the current crisis seriously enough.