Politically, Kiley’s decision is something of a Hail Mary pass. The new House maps that California voters approved last fall as part of the Democrats’ retaliation for GOP gerrymandering in Texas carved up his district, which stretches from the Sacramento suburbs hundreds of miles south along the Nevada border. Kiley had to choose whether to challenge a conservative colleague, Representative Tom McClintock, in a safe Republican seat, or to run in a district that Democrats drew in their own favor. He chose to avoid a potentially nasty intraparty primary and seek the seat that includes his hometown (and that voted for Kamala Harris by about 10 points in 2024). In such a Democratic-leaning district, however, running as an independent might be Kiley’s only chance to win.