But prediction markets still have a long way to go if they are to become a trusted part of the financial infrastructure. For starters, the industry is plagued by issues of insider trading and manipulation. Hours before the US announced the exfiltration of Nicolás Maduro, an anonymous Polymarket user curiously bet that Venezuela’s president would fall. They made more than $400,000. Reasonably, some US lawmakers want to formalise constraints on platform use for officials, political appointees and executive branch employees.