From all the commentary on Warsh, a consensus emerges on two related points. One is that he is likely to tilt the Fed towards looser policy in terms of policy (short-term) interest rates compared with Jay Powell’s Fed. The other is that he is likely to move the central bank towards a smaller balance sheet than previously foreseen, which, all else being equal, should push up long-term rates. Put this together, and we should expect lower short rates and higher long rates than otherwise, or a steeper yield curve in the jargon.