That would be a historic first, But it would not necessarily signify an imminent push for the breakup of the union. Mr Swinney has pledged to put independence at the centre of his campaign, but linked calls for a second referendum to achieving an outright SNP majority for the first time since 2011. Setting the bar high reflects a sense of strategic caution. The party is still in recovery mode, after a chaotic term in which two leaders resigned, a coalition with the Greens collapsed, and Nicola Sturgeon’s estranged husband, Peter Murrell, was charged with embezzlement of SNP funds.