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The Forecast Wars on Weather Twitter

天气推特上的预测大战

The Forecast Wars on Weather Twitter
2026-01-28  1440  困难
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Yes, weather influencers exist, and their accounts—along with those of social-media-driven weather brands—have become increasingly popular thanks to their flair for the dramatic. Compared to their credentialled meteorologist counterparts, engagement-driven accounts run by private weather services and amateur storm chasers tend to exaggerate possibilities and foment hype for anticipated weather events, presenting forecasts as facts and predictions as guarantees. Despite using the same models as the professionals—anyone can freely access National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, which are collected in part by government-owned satellites, planes, weather balloons, buoys, radar systems, and weather stations—private forecasters and solo enthusiasts are not beholden to the American Meteorological Society’s best practices, which caution against overstating certainty and posting raw data without explanation. When a private, subscription-based company such as BAM Weather posts graphics of individual model runs to social media, for instance, the run data may not be indicative of a wider trend or probability; the forecast scenario may vanish from a run conducted only a few hours later. While there is nothing implicitly malicious or unethical about posting individual model data or visuals to social media, there are risks. A single model run may be misinterpreted as an actual meteorological forecast, or, more concerning, an inevitability. If you’re scrolling social media and see a Rothko-like weather map warning of a massive winter storm—surely you’ll take notice.

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